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Stat Translator
What does this stat actually mean?
Plain English. Stats can be useful and still misleading.
8 stats
EPA/play
NFL · NCAAF
Expected Points Added per play estimates how much a play helps or hurts a team’s chances of scoring, compared with a typical situation.
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
It tries to value quality of plays, not just yards. A 3-yard gain on 3rd-and-2 can be better than a 8-yard gain on 3rd-and-15.
When it can mislead
It is a model, not the official score. Garbage time, opponent quality, and sample size still matter. One game of EPA is noisy.
How to use it
Use it as one view of offense/defense efficiency. Pair it with injuries, rest, and who they played. Do not treat it as a bet slip.
Offensive rating (ORtg)
NBA · WNBA · NCAAB
Points scored÷100 possessions
Points scored per 100 possessions. It adjusts for pace so a slow team and a fast team can be compared more fairly.
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
Raw points favor fast teams. Rating asks: how well do they score when they get a chance?
When it can mislead
Short stretches swing. Lineup data can differ from team data. A great offense can still have a cold shooting night.
How to use it
Compare both teams’ offensive and defensive ratings, then ask about rest, injuries, and matchup.
Defensive rating (DRtg)
NBA · WNBA · NCAAB
Points allowed÷100 possessions
Points allowed per 100 possessions. Lower is better.
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
It separates “they play slow” from “they actually get stops.”
When it can mislead
Opponent quality and blowout minutes can distort a small sample.
How to use it
Read it with pace. A low-scoring game might be defense, or just few possessions.
Strength of schedule
NFL · NCAAF · NCAAB
A measure of how hard a team’s opponents have been — not just the win-loss record.
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
10–2 against weak teams is a different résumé than 10–2 against strong teams.
When it can mislead
Formulas differ. Early-season SOS is guesswork. Future games are not in the past SOS.
How to use it
Use it to challenge a shiny record, not as a single ranking commandment.
WHIP
MLB
Walks + hits÷Innings pitched
Walks plus hits per inning pitched. How many baserunners a pitcher allows, on average.
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
Baserunners create scoring chances. WHIP is a simple pressure gauge.
When it can mislead
Defense, park, and luck on balls in play matter. A few innings are a tiny sample.
How to use it
Pair with opponent lineup and park. Do not crown a pitcher after two starts.
Expected goals (xG)
Soccer
A model of shot quality: how often similar shots become goals, on average.
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
It separates “they finished everything” from “they created good chances.”
When it can mislead
Models differ. Finishing talent is real. One match xG is noisy. It is not the official score.
How to use it
Use it to ask whether a result was lucky, not to guarantee the next match.
Save percentage
NHL
Saves divided by shots on goal. How often the goalie stopped shots that were on net.
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
Goaltending swings series. A hot or cold goalie can hide or expose a team.
When it can mislead
Shot quality is not equal. High-danger chances make the same save percentage mean different things. Small samples bounce.
How to use it
Ask about workload, rest, and quality of shots — not just the percent.
Usage rate
NBA · WNBA
How large a share of team plays a player uses while on the floor (shots, turnovers, trips to the line).
›Why it matters, when it misleads
Why it matters
Opportunity drives counting stats. A high-usage player can look great on a quiet supporting cast.
When it can mislead
Usage is not efficiency. High usage with poor shooting can hurt. Role changes overnight with injuries.
How to use it
Read usage with efficiency and minutes. A new starter’s usage can jump.
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