Math Through Sports
How likely is it?
5 min · Some things happen often, some rarely — and "often" is not "always".
- Probability
The stat
Some things happen often, some rarely — and "often" is not "always".
He completed 7 of 10 passes. So what happens on the next 30?
- 1. Watch
- 2. Try it
- 3. Predict
- 4. Explain
- 5. Get feedback
- 6. Master
Video slot · not yet filmed
The episode for this lesson is in production. Everything it teaches is below — the storyboard, the full script, and the same questions the video pauses on. Nothing here is blocked while we film.
What happens, and when
- 0:00HookA quarterback completes 7 of his 10 passes
- 0:12Concept7 out of 10 written three ways
- 0:30Sports example7 ÷ 10 = 0.70 = 70%, animated on the stat line
- 0:52Interactive questionVideo pauses: 30 passes at the same rate?
- 1:06Explanation3 groups of 10, so 3 groups of 7
- 1:28ChallengeWhat about 3 of the next 10 — where did those go?
- 1:40Mastery checkBack to the lesson questions
Try it
These are the questions the video stops on. They are answerable here whether or not you watch — and they are what counts toward mastery. Watching alone does not.
Try it · paused at 0:52
He throws 30 passes at the same rate. About how many would you expect him to complete?
The video is paused until you answer. Answering here counts toward mastery.
Try it · paused at 1:28
If about 21 of those 30 are caught, what happens to the other 9?
The video is paused until you answer. Answering here counts toward mastery.
Learn the number
Probability is how often something happens when you try it many times.
If a team has played 10 games like tonight and won 7 of them, that is 7 out of 10.
7 out of 10 means 3 out of 10 went the other way. Those 3 games were real too.
Read the stat
A team wins 7 of 10 similar games.
- Wins go on top and all the games go on the bottom: 7/10.
- The games they did not win: 10 − 7 = 3, so 3/10.
- 7 out of 10 and 3 out of 10 together make all 10 games.
They win about 7 times in 10, and lose about 3 times in 10.
Your turn
A goalie saves 8 of every 10 shots. Out of the next 10 shots, about how many would you expect to go in?
Explain what it means
"Likely" is not "certain". A team that wins 7 times in 10 still loses sometimes, and that does not mean anyone did the maths wrong.
Make a prediction
Pick a team that usually wins and guess whether they win their next game. Write down how sure you are: a little sure, or very sure.
Review what happened
If they lost, look at the number again. 3 out of 10 games were always going to go that way. One game cannot tell you whether 7/10 was right.
Check your understanding
0 of 3 correct
Every question has to be right for this lesson to count as complete. Miss one and you can try it again.