Variance and regression to the mean
5 min read
The stat
Same process, different box scores. Extreme nights often cool off.
What it means
Variance means luck and noise. A good team can shoot 28% one night and 48% the next with a similar process.
Why it matters
Regression to the mean: extreme results often move back toward a longer-run average. That is not a law that “they are due.” It is a reminder not to treat one explosion as the new normal.
Watch out
A good prediction can lose. A messy prediction can win. The scoreboard is not a full report card.