Percentages and probability
5 min read
The stat
A percent is a share of 100 tries — not a promise about tonight.
Made shots
Shots taken
What it means
Probability is a number for how often something would happen if you could repeat the same situation many times.
Why it matters
40 out of 100 made threes is 40%. That player can still miss the next five. The percent describes a pattern, not the next shot.
Watch out
Small samples swing wildly. 2 of 3 is 67%, but three shots is not a career.
A coin is about 50/50. Ten heads in a row does not make the next flip “due” to be tails.